Re-imagining Vote Buying and Political Cross-Carpeting as Predictors of Insecurity during Elections in South West Nigeria

Abstract

This study re-imagined vote buying and political cross-carpeting as perceptual predictors of insecurity during elections in South West Nigeria. The study adopted three objectives, three research questions, and three null hypotheses, and adopted a descriptive survey research design of the correlational/predictive type. The population comprised adult citizens (registered voters) in the six states of South West Nigeria, from whom a sample of 400 respondents was drawn from three purposively selected states (Ondo, Oyo, and Osun) using a multi-stage sampling technique. A researcher-designed instrument titled “Vote Buying, Cross-Carpeting and Election Insecurity Questionnaire” (VBCCEIQ), validated by experts in Social Studies Education and Measurement and Evaluation and yielding Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients ranging from 0.79 to 0.85 across subscales, was used for data collection. Three hundred and seventy copies of the questionnaire (92.5%) were retrieved and analysed. Research questions were answered using mean and standard deviation, while hypotheses were tested using simple and multiple linear regressions at the 0.05 level of significance. Findings showed that respondents perceived vote buying (Grand mean = 3.12), political cross-carpeting (Grand mean = 2.98), and election insecurity (Grand mean = 3.20) at a relatively high level; items above the mean of 2.50 were accepted, while those below were rejected, with 2.50 as the mean benchmark. Perceived vote buying significantly predicted perceived election insecurity (R=0.512, R² = 0.262, F(1, 368)=130.52, p<.05), while perceived political cross-carpeting also significantly predicted perceived election insecurity (R = .447, R² = .200, F(1, 368) = 91.85, p<.05). Jointly, perceived vote buying and perceived political cross-carpeting significantly predicted perceived election insecurity, accounting for 36.1% of the variance (R = .601, R² = .361, F(2, 367) =103.76, p < .05), with vote buying (β = .389) contributing more strongly than political cross-carpeting (β = .291). The study concluded that perceived vote buying and political cross-carpeting are significant predictors of perceived election insecurity in the sampled South West states, while recognising the need to triangulate with independent electoral and security data.